The pie is half its size, get over it: Yes, every possible metric will report in considerably worse or at least lower than any comparable previous reporting segment. The global economy has been wiped out of a huge chunk of its size and value. If you think that won't show up somewhere, keep drinking the funny stuff. Else, get over it and find what life lies beyond it.
Another certainty is that It will continue to be that size for a while to come. In light of that stunning revelation, rethink your business, rethink your personal expenses, rethink your life. Rework every possible number you can get your hands on and get your team/organization to see it and get on board with it.
Ceiling meets shit, but there is more to come: Even though the financial sector has already been mauled very badly, there is no certainty that we have seen the actual extent of the damage yet from other segments. There is apparently an equally bad disaster-in-waiting in the credit card segment and closer to home the real estate sector is primed for a massive collapse any time soon, which will be borne by the banks because of the loans that were bankrolling the real estate firms and their outlandish plans.
The Asterix and the Roman Agent angle: We don't really know who all are suspect. We just know that we don't know. You can only do estimates of exposure to bad money that you know of. You can't make estimates exposure that you are not aware of. You may not have any direct CDO exposure, but your bank may have it. Your primary investor may have burnt his hands in the melee. Your largest paying client may go under because of it. There are a million ways in which you could be torched by this mess for no fault of yours.
It sucks to lose that way. But that is life, especially if you can realize that you would have also had a good time for no fault of yours when the times were good. The key is to be prepared for worst-case scenarios. Have more than a couple of plans in hand, ranging from an okay case scenario to the unthinkable. Know what you are going to do in each of those situations. To assume that something won't happen to you, under the current circumstances, is stupidity of the extreme kind.
Secure jobs? Perish the thought: In this environment, no job is even close to being safe. Most enterprises and set ups were being primed for the 2 x the boom when the crash happened. That means almost every set up out there is overstaffed and staff are considerably overpaid. Even without the crash, most of these joints were raking up losses, than profits, which means that there is no way possible now to pay for a lot of these offices and people.
Most of the impact won't be felt till the next reporting season comes around as most of the revenue has been booked for the most recent numbers. It is only during the next reporting cycle that we'll get to see the full extent of the damage and it won't be a pretty sight. Profitable companies can still manage to hold it together reasonably well, if they want to. But companies that are in the red will have a hard time maintaining their structures as we know them now.
Expect anything that won't bring in revenue in the next 12 months or more to be shut down without a second thought. Which also means that a lot of set ups, those that had long-term plays without deep pockets to back them won't survive this phase. Divisions with existing revenue lines will see considerable tightening of their spends, leading to the blind slashing of workforce and restructuring of pay across the board. Shorter version: you'll be lucky if you get to keep your job at any level.
RIP scale, all hail margins: Every product that aimed to work scale to its advantage (0 to 10 million users in a very short time frame and the likes) and leveraging it will have a tough time holding on to that dream. Each and every factor that enables such a play takes a beating in such a market. The economics of achieving longer-term lift-off at the cost of short term cash hemorrhaging won't work for the next couple of years, even for those who have very deep pockets. Every penny in the bank right now is twice its numeric worth.
This means that we'll also see some nice things too out there. For starters, there will be an end in the near-term of the clone wars, which had everyone and his dog trying to clone an existing Facebook or Myspace. Any product without an identifiable revenue line will either shut down or find no takers. Which is a very good thing, if you ask me. We badly need some seriousness to be introduced back into the innovation ecosystem.
To finish first, first you must finish: If there is a silver lining in this season of horrors, it is that those who can survive to see the light at the end of the tunnel will probably have it really good. They will benefit from a considerably saner environment due to rationalized cost structures, reduced competition and lower cost of talent compared to the recent insane times. But for that you need to first wind up there in the first place.
If you are a company playing for scale, there are very few chances that you'll make it in the end. Cut your losses and get our right now or recast your product and services and see if it stands any chance to make any money. This is the dreamland of the margin players, who know exactly how many dollars they are making on their pennies or how many more pennies they are making on their pennies. Being profitable, even at very low levels, is a luxury in these times and those are the ones who'll finish this race for sure.
Build slow, grow slow & count every penny: Does that mean there is no way to build and grow a company for the next couple of years? Yes, there is. But it is insanely difficult too. There is little money available out there to bootstrap things and if securing funding was difficult earlier, it will be 100x more difficult in the current circumstances. On the plus side, due to the boom, there are people who have been sane with the money they got out of the boom, which would enable them to work for you or start things alongside you.
But every product born in this climate will also need to satisfy the revenue criterion that was often ignored in the boom days. You WILL need to make money from the word go or have a realistic roadmap to revenue and profit to be funded or taken seriously. Needless to say, this is not everyone's cup of tea. If you thought conception-to-exit cycles were long earlier, you have not seen anything yet. We could see companies and investors go for longer without an exit than what it used to be earlier.
Which means that you need to buckle yourself in for the long run in these circumstances if you are looking to start something. This is not an environment for the weak or stomach or those who are used to luxuries as a must-have in life.
This too shall pass: The good thing about booms and busts is that they come and go. This is pretty much the second crash in this decade and for sure it will be followed by another boom in a while. Life is cyclic and this is just another one of those cycles.
In the meantime, enjoy the slower life, spend time with people you love and care about and appreciate the smaller unappreciated things in life than to burst a blood vessel every time Techcrunch consigns another start up to the dead pool.
